encik wan - Trading Developer on Global Investment and Technical Analysis

Last month we suspected $SPX was ready to go down in a major correction. It did not initially, but the upturn is proved to unsustainable. This time, more and more option traders are moving to favor puts. See charts below. Two of the past bull traps (September 08 and April 10) are coincided with the turn of MACD of $CPC/$SPX ratio.

$SPX

$CPC/$SPX ratio

In the last decade, top for US Dollar Index is 120. However in the last few years, US Dollar Index fails to break 90 in 2005, 2009 and 2010. See US Dollar Index chart below.

While the world is going to enjoy 2010 World Cup Final between Spain and Netherlands, mode of global investors may be spoilt by possibly next more than 10% correction. Main reason for the short term bearishness is weak rebound in lower volume. The risk of major downturn will be greater when $SPX cannot hold 1000 level. Next major support for $SPX is 800