Additional Thoughts on September 2011 Asset Allocation
It is understandable I am bearish on equities(at least in short term) after a two-digit correction for September 2011 asset allocation. How about other asset classes, e.g. bonds, commodities?
For bonds, encikwan portfolio is too late. Using 10-year US Treasury note yield as a proxy to global bonds due to US Federal Reserve as world central bank , it is at lowest point since 1995. See monthly TNX chart below.
10-year US Treasury note yield (monthly) - 2011-09-02.
The phenomenon of lowest interest for more than a decade is also confirmed by
3-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate or SIBOR (1987 July - 2011 August). Tip - time to borrow as much as you can handle.
For commodities as represented by Continuous Commodity Index, it is interesting.
Continuous Commodity Index weekly chart - 20110902(CCI)
On one hand, precious metals like gold seem ‘unstoppable’, but oil and agriculture is not following due to fear of recession which will affect demands and US dollar is not ‘fall-off-a-cliff’.
‘SPDR Gold weekly - 20110902
iShares Silver weekly - 20110902
Light Crude Oil Spot weekly - 20110902
PowerShares Agriculture weekly - 20110902
So should I follow hottest sectors? Of course, my answer is NO. Silver and agriculture will be interesting investment candidates in October 2011 if prices can move closer to their respective 50-day moving average and gold is not overbought, e.g. RSI < 60 (reason : silver may be hit together with gold in a correction).







Me !
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